Daqin Railway (601006): In October, the traffic volume will be +5 for ten years.

8% of overall traffic will bottom out

Daqin Railway (601006): In October, the traffic volume will be +5 for ten years.

8% of overall traffic will bottom out

Investment Highlights: News / Announcements.

The Daqin Railway announced operating data for October. The company ‘s core asset, the Daqin Line, completed 3,664 cargo shipments in October, an overall increase of 5.

8%, with an average daily volume of 118.

19 inches.

Daqin Line operates heavy trucks 82 daily.

2 trains, of which 56 are ranked 2 trains per day.

3 columns.

Cumulative traffic in the first 10 months3.

600 million tons, a reduction of 3 per year.


  The overhaul in the fall was wrong, and many of the shipments in October returned significantly.

The Daqin Line has two intensive repairs in the spring and autumn each year. The intensive repairs this fall will be from September 15th to October 8th, ending 15 days earlier than the overhaul period of September 29th to October 23rd last year.The number increases by 5 every year.


Judging from the transfer volume of Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian ports, the average daily traffic volume during the overhaul in the first 8 days of October remained at about 105, and the traffic volume returned to a high level of about 125 after the overhaul.

However, judging from the total transportation volume in the two months of September and October, the total transportation volume was 7047 in the two months of this year. After excluding the impact of overhaul, it still decreased by 2.

8%, which is mainly affected by the impact of hydropower caused by incoming water and storage water.

  Traffic and annual growth data are expected to bottom out and rebound.

In the first three quarters, due to the multiple external unexpected factors, the incremental traffic on the Da-Qin Line shifted every half year, and it will bottom out in the fourth quarter.

The annual fall overhaul was the wrong period, 西安耍耍网 bringing an annual increase of 5 in October.

8%. In the fourth quarter of the beginning of the year, the dry season is expected. Hydropower is expected to fall. With the peak of winter electricity consumption, the traffic on the Daqin Line will rise to a relatively high level in November / December. With a low annual base and the elimination of internal and external sudden factors, the internal traffic will show a slight increase in synchronization, and the annual traffic is expected to rise to 4 in 2020.

500 million tons or more.

  Steady performance, still the target of high-quality defense, investment sentiment picked up.

The first three quarters of the Daqin Line are often affected by multiple external factors.

73%, but benefited from cost control, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by nearly 2 in the first three quarters.

57%, up to 120.

The performance 杭州夜网论坛 of the company is 8.8 billion US dollars, and the overall performance is stable. Based on our calculation of profit in 2019, if the company’s cash dividend ratio in 2018 is 50%, this year’s yield will still be 6%. In line with the internal market environment, the absolute absolute value of the defense allocation value.

  Maintain profit forecast and maintain “Buy” rating.

Maintaining profit forecast, it is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will be 138 in 2019-2021.

9.8 billion, 146.

37 ppm, 151.

1.6 billion.

, The current position has an index defense value, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: Economic growth brings coal transportation business below expectations.