Yili (600887): Large single product revenue growth rate and market share continue to increase

Yili (600887): Large single product revenue growth rate and market share continue to increase

Key points of investment: The growth rate of large single products is stable, and the market share continues to increase due to (1) the continued decline of third- and fourth-tier channels and the development of new channels such as convenience stores;Strawberry oat flavor, the launch of new mango passion fruit, orange pineapple, and the promotion of high-end products of Jindian Juanshan; (3) the market launch of the parent brand premium sour milk shake, and the coverage of plant selection channels, the room temperature of Yili in the first half of this yearThe market share of the products has continued to increase. It is expected that the revenue growth of Jindian will be> 17%, and the growth rate of Amex will be> 20%.

Raw milk cost pressure has slightly increased, and product upgrade mitigation partially affected the raw milk purchase cost of 19H1 company + 6%, slightly exceeding the initial expected increase of 3% to 5%. It is expected that continuous improvement of product structure can alleviate some of the impact.

Due to the 上海夜网论坛 increase in the cost of raw milk, the company’s purchase of gifts in Q1 has decreased, and the gross profit margin has also increased by +0 every year.

7ppt, entering Q2, benefiting from the impact of increased downward adjustments, the company’s cost back-feeding channels and the effect of discounts on competing products. Q2 overall purchase gift strength increased slightly from the previous month, but it is still controllable.

Judging from the announced purchase prices of raw milk in the main producing areas, the price of raw milk this year shows a trend of not off-season. It is expected that the stocking of downstream products will be held during the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day. The price of raw milk is expected to maintain a growth rate of> 5% this year.

This year’s increase in raw milk prices is mainly due to 武汉夜网论坛 (1) the continued slump in raw milk prices, which has led to cattle rushes affecting high-yield cows; (2) the grave environmental protection policies have led to the closure and withdrawal of some ranches, and few more ranches;(3) The increase in the proportion of downstream high-end products has increased the demand for raw milk.

At present, some large ranches have plans to expand production, and they will initially increase their contribution in the second half of next year.

Under the high base last year, costs could be controlled under the influence of the World Cup. Last year, the company’s Q2 sales expense ratio reached 28.

35%, while the normal level is about 25%. This year, it is expected that Q2 will be placed online and offline at the expense rate. There will be about 3% of the cost space each time. The traditional transmission efficiency such as CCTV will be reduced. The company is also actively looking for products.The marketing of intermediate resources, diversified and differentiated business product marketing, and improving the efficiency of the use of expenses.

Earnings forecasts and estimates We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 894.

300 million / 992.

900 million / 1,073.

500 million, each year +13.

24% / 11.

02% / 8.

12%, net profit to mother is 71.

300 million / 81.

200 million / 92.

1 trillion each year +10.

5% / 14.

0% / 13.

4%, corresponding to EPS 1.

17 yuan / 1.

33 yuan / 1.

51 yuan, the company is currently expected to correspond to 19/20 PE of 28X / 24X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: Raw milk price rises more than expected / Intensified competition among dairy companies

New City Holdings (601155): Residential + Commercial Qi Fei’s performance exceeded 10 billion

New City Holdings (601155): “Residential + Commercial” Qi Fei’s performance exceeded 10 billion

Event Xincheng Holdings released the 2018 annual report: 2018 realized operating income of 541.

33 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

58%; net profit attributable to mother 104.

910,000 yuan, an increase of 74 in ten years.

02%; basic profit income 4.

69 yuan, expected average return on net assets 41.


Comments on profitability continued to improve, net profit attributable 北京夜生活网 to mothers exceeded 10 billion.

Xincheng Holdings achieved an operating income growth rate of 33 in 2018.

58%, net profit attributable to mothers grows 74 per year.

02%, the Air Force announced that the 2018 performance range was 90-105 trillion, and the final performance fell in the middle of the range.

The substantial improvement in the company’s performance was mainly due to: 1) The company’s carry-over speeded up and its profitability continued to increase, with a gross profit margin of up to 36.

69%, an increase of 1.

1 unit, setting a new historical high.

2) Gains and losses on fair value changes of investment properties amounted to 27.

US $ 8.5 billion, mainly due to the company’s breakthrough in new projects transferred to investment real estate in the current period, which resulted in fair value gains and losses.

3) Investment income has increased significantly. Investment income in 201822.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 320 in ten years.


Sales are eye-catching, investment is positive, and soil reserves are plentiful.

The company achieved a contract budget of 2210 in 2018.

9.8 billion, an annual increase of 74.

82%, 122 of the 180 billion sales target at the beginning of the year.

83%; sales area reached 1812.

0.6 million square meters, an increase of 95 in ten years.

21%, the growth rate ranked first among the top ten housing companies.

According to CRIC data, the company’s real estate sales area and sales amount ranked 7th and 8th among national real estate companies respectively, up 4 and 5 places compared with 2017.

The company adheres to the strategic policy of “deep regional cultivation, high turnover, and large operations”. Suzhou regional sales exceeded 20 billion, and southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other regions successively exceeded 10 billion sales.

In terms of investment, the company further added a total of 164 new land reserves with a total construction area of 4473.

240,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 41%, the average floor price is only 2330 yuan / square meter, accounting for 19% of the average sales price of 12,201 yuan / square meter in the same period, future project gross profit level is guaranteed.

The company’s existing soil reserves are very plentiful, with an area under construction of 7,158.

910,000 square meters, 3125 undeveloped building surface.

820,000 square meters. Based on the average sales price in 2018, the company’s value under construction and undeveloped exceeded 1.250 billion yuan.

Leverage levels continued to decline, and financing costs increased slightly.

The company effectively controls its leverage level, with an asset-liability ratio of 84 in 2018.

57%, excluding the pre-receipt asset-liability ratio of only 49%, a continuous decline of 9 alternatives; net debt ratio of 38%, a continuous decline of 25 alternatives.

In 2018, the company actively expanded financing channels and diversified financing.
In the context of a tighter financing environment, the company’s financing costs have increased, with an average financing cost of 6.
47%, an increase of 115 BP compared to the end of 2017.

The high-quality commercial leasing rate is high, and the nationwide expansion is balanced.

The company newly opened 19 new town Wuyue squares this year, the second largest in the industry in terms of opening scale, and gradually opened 42 new town Wuyue squares, with an opening area of 390.

400,000 countries, an annual increase of 72.

25%; long-term rent and management fee income21.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 107 in ten years.

44%, with an average occupancy rate of 98.

83%, continue to improve by 2017.

92 units.

The company’s goal is to build a high-quality shopping center that is “sentimental, non-replicated, and large-scale”. At present, it has achieved “the center of Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta as its core, and national expansion to the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Rim, and the Midwest.Balanced national layout strategy.

Investment suggestion: New City Holdings adheres to the “dwelling + business” two-wheel drive model. The company takes the Yangtze River Delta as its core and completes the layout of key national urban agglomerations.

The company’s scale of sales has continued to expand, with abundant land reserves. It is expected that the sales growth rate in the next 2-3 years will remain at a high level in the industry.

We expect the company’s EPS to reach 6 in 2019-2021.

00, 7.

74, 9.

32 yuan, the corresponding PE is 5 respectively.

73, 4.


69 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; policy adjustments leading to operational risks (shed reform, restructuring, interest rate policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.).

China Shenhua (601088): 2018 results and forecasts are consistent; earnings and balance sheet are stable

China Shenhua (601088): 2018 results and forecasts are consistent; earnings and balance sheet are stable

2018 results and forecast are in line China Shenhua announced 2018 results: stock operating income of 2641 trillion, an increase of 6.

2%, net profit attributable to mothers was 4.39 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.

6%, corresponding to a profit of 2.

21 yuan, net profit after deduction is 4.61 million yuan, an increase of 2 a year.

1%, H shares return to the mother net profit 佛山桑拿网 of 441 trillion, a continuous decline of 8%.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company’s stock income was 700 trillion, quarterly / quarterly +5.

7% / + 5.

0%, the net profit attributable to the mother is 860,000 yuan, a decrease of 8 over.

5%, a 30% decrease from the previous month.

The company’s final dividend for 2018 is 0.

88 yuan / share, pay dividends?

Comments: 1) 4Q18 output slightly increased.

Commercial coal production in 2018 2.

9.7 billion tons, +0 in the past.

4% in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 7,660 inches, +3 per year / mo.

4% / + 3.


2) 4Q18 coal prices fell slightly.

Average coal sales price in 2018 +0.

9%, the average price of 422 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter of 18, many years / -3.

2% /-1.


3) Coal unit cost increases.

The unit cost of self-produced coal for A shares in 2018 was 113 yuan / ton, +4 for ten years.

5%, raw materials, fuel and power +5.

1 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter of 18, +5 per year / mo.

9% / + 13%.

4) Power generation and transportation continue to grow.

In 2018, the turnover of self-owned railway transportation was + 4% per week, and the amount of electricity generated / electricity sold was +8.

5% / + 8.

7%, long-term freight volume / turnover volume for ten years +11.

4% / + 11.


5) 2018 financial expenses + 18% / +6.

30,000 yuan, asset impairment decreased by 62% / 16.

80,000 yuan, non-operating expenses increased by 1.
8x / + 220,000 yuan (partly due to separation and transfer of “three supply and one industry”); 6) 2018 operating cash flow of 8.88 million yuan, a decrease of 7.

7) Capital expenditures of 23.2 billion in 2018 are mainly used for planting and the Huangda Railway, and 27.1 billion are planned for 2019.

8) At the end of 2018, the net debt ratio was about -3%.

Development Trend 2019 Plan: Commercial coal production 2.

900 million tons (previously reduced by 2.

2%), the unit cost of self-produced coal increased by less than 5%, the three fees were 229 trillion yuan (reduced by 9%), and the sales of electricity exceeded 47% (Guohua joint venture company Shenhua holds 42 shares).

5%, investment in thermal power assets is no longer consolidated).

Industry view: the adjustment of coal prices in the off-season; the average reduction in port coal prices in 2019 will decrease by 8%.

Earnings forecast changes based on assumptions such as price, output, etc. We cut A / H shares 2019e EPS by 2.

1% / 4.

9% to 2.


32 yuan?
A / H shares 2020e EPS 2.


37 yuan.

Estimated and recommended company A shares are expected to correspond to 19/20 9.


1x P / E, H 深圳桑拿网 shares correspond to 19/20 7.


3 times P / E, maintaining the company’s A / H shares neutral rating and target price of 20 yuan (19/20 8).


6x P / E, 5% decline) / 19 Hong Kong dollars (19/20 July.


1x P / E, 3% decline).

Risks Coal demand fell short of expectations; coal prices fell more than expected.

Tan Tailai (603659): Reduced costs and implemented significant Q3 usher in performance inflection point

Tan Tailai (603659): Reduced costs and implemented significant Q3 usher in performance inflection point

Q3 deducted non-net profit grew at a high speed, and the turning point in performance appeared.

In the first three quarters, revenue was 3.5 billion, and in ten years it was +52.

8%; return to mother 4.

5.8 billion, deducting 4.

2.1 billion, plus +25 for ten years.

52%, performance growth exceeded expectations.

Among them, Q3 single-quarter revenue was 13.

200 million, previously +44.

91%, deducting non-net profit 1.

8.1 billion, previously +58.

33%, +43.


The rapid quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the third quarter was mainly due to the substantial increase in the number of substitute products, the increase in the proportion of high unit price products, and the decrease in costs.

Single quarter gross margin reached 30.

83%, +3 from the previous quarter.

51%, other major financial indicators remained stable.

Significant cost reductions are due to the smooth progress of vertical integration of the industrial chain.

Inner Mongolia Xingfeng graphitization capacity explosion caused by the cost of more than 5,000 yuan / ton cost reduction, and shares in the revitalization of carbon needle needle coke production capacity and processing capacity, gradually reducing the company’s supplementary material costs.

It is expected that the cumulative graphitization and needle coke production will continue to be released, and the company’s monthly material cost will be further reduced.

Benefiting from the high prosperity of the development of overseas LG industry chain, the expansion volume has grown rapidly.

Benefiting from the high overseas economic boom, the introduction and expansion of Q3 alternative materials in LG continued to expand, driving the large increase in Q3 introduction and at the same time increasing the average price of products. It is expected that the expansion of the scale will be worry-free.

LG plans to produce 63Gwh power batteries in 2020. It is expected to exceed 44Gwh. Next year, LG’s guidance orders will exceed 3 times, and the increase will gradually exceed 3 times. The company is the key beneficiary of the LG industry chain.increase.

It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 6, respectively.

95, 9.

20, 11.

3.4 billion, corresponding to PE32, 24, 20 times.

Risk warning: The industry development is less than expected, and the company’s overseas customer 杭州桑拿 expansion is less than expected.

Lingnan Holdings (000524): The main business maintains stable growth, adjusts its layout, and taps the development bonus of the Greater Bay Area

Lingnan Holdings (000524): The main business maintains stable growth, adjusts its layout, and taps the development bonus of the Greater Bay Area

Investment Highlights: The company announced its 2018 report: the company achieved revenue of 70 in 2018.

78 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

73%; realized net 青岛夜网 profit attributable to mother 2.

0.5 billion (+15.

51%), which is in line with the company’s performance forecast forecast (ten-year growth in net profit attributable to the mother).

51% -21.

22%); deduct non-net profit1.

600 million (+7.


Reported performance The company’s cost reduction and efficiency improvement effects appeared, and the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.

63pct to 7.

04%, the management expense ratio (excluding R & D expenses) decreased by 0.

34 points to 4.

4%, the financial expense ratio fell to 0.

06pct to 0.

32%. The R & D expenses in this period increase with the start of the project. The R & D expense rate is 0.


The business travel business has accelerated its nationwide deployment, with both online and offline efforts to maintain sustained and stable growth.

In 2018, under the background that outbound tourism was slightly weak due to the impact of the economic cycle, the growth rate of outbound tourism in Europe, Australia and Japan increased by more than 10%, and the overall revenue of outbound tourism (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) increased by more than 6.


The revenue of various regions of the domestic tourism sector has increased every year, with the eastern and western regions being the most prominent, and the overall revenue has increased each year.


In 2018, Guangzhou Travel purchased 51% of Wuhan Feitu Holidays, established Xi’an Guangzhou Travel, and built Central China and Northwest operation centers, respectively, to accelerate the company’s national strategic layout.

According to the number of reports, Feitu Holidays realized a net profit of 10.79 million yuan, and the performance commitment completion rate was 101%.

In terms of online sales, C-members on the e-commerce platform reached 3.3 million, and total e-commerce revenue reached 8.

810,000 yuan (+42.

66%). The B2B strictly selected peer-to-peer wholesale platform “walking network” was successfully launched during the year, which can be effectively combined with existing online sales channels and the overall ability of online operations has been further enhanced.

The development of products adjusts the layout and exploits the dividends of the Greater Bay Area. Industrial integration shows new momentum.

The company’s business travel and accommodation business actively adjusted its key layout in the Greater Bay Area.

In terms of travel agencies, Guangzhou Travel launched timely thematic planning products such as “Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High-speed Rail” and “Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge”, which further increased the operating income of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau travel.


Specifically, the Lingnan Oriental and Lingnan Garden brands realized the layout of northern Guangdong and western Guangdong respectively; Nansha Garden Hotel officially opened in August 2018, becoming a landmark creative design hotel serving the development and construction of Nansha National New District and Free Trade Zone; the first LingJuchuangxiang Apartment opened in the early days. In November, it signed a new contract for the Zhuhai Hengqin Ridge Residence Management Project and quickly deployed the mid- to high-end apartment market in the Greater Bay Area.

Reporting the average, Lingnan Hotel / Garden Hotel / Oriental Hotel / China Hotel net profit growth rate attributable to mothers reached 6 respectively.

64% / 0.

13% /-27.

78% / 26.

26%, of which, except for the Oriental Hotel, which saw a decrease in profits due to the increase in costs, the remaining hotels maintained a steady increase.

At present, the Fengqi Qijing Scenic Spot under the management of the company is actively applying for 4A scenic spots in an effort to create another landing platform for the integration of the tourism industry in Lingnan. Profit forecast and investment advice: After the company’s assets are integrated, it will be transformed into a comprehensive tourism group. After the acquisition of Flying Holidays, good synergy will be achieved. The travel agency and hotel business will maintain stable growth. In 19 years, they may enjoy the development bonus of the Greater Bay Area.

Adjust the profit forecast for 19/20 and supplement the profit forecast for 2021. It is expected that EPS for 19-21 will be 0.



39 yuan (the original 19/20 EPS was 0.


40), corresponding PE is 26/24/22 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk reminder: exit security events and political factors, exchange rate risks, etc.

Zhengbang Technology (002157) Commentary on Major Events: Increasing holding of controlling shareholders demonstrates confidence in breeding pig assets + biosafety prevention and control to help grow

Zhengbang Technology (002157) Commentary on Major Events: Increasing holding of controlling shareholders demonstrates confidence in breeding pig assets + biosafety prevention and control to help grow

The company issued an announcement saying that the controlling shareholder Zhengbang Group intends to increase its holdings of the company’s shares through centralized bidding with its own funds. The increase is not less than 20 million shares and not more than 40 million shares. There is no price replacement for this increase in the plan., Determined based on the company’s stock price fluctuations and the overall trend of the capital market, and will be completed within 6 months from the date of this announcement.

  Comment: The increase in shareholding fully demonstrates the controlling shareholder’s confidence in the company’s future development and makes every effort to strengthen and expand the pig breeding business.

Zhengbang Group currently holds company 4.

6.9 billion shares, accounting for 19% of the company’s total share capital.

1%. After the completion of this increase, Zhengbang Group will hold more than 4 shares in the company.

8.9 billion shares, the shareholding ratio will return to more than 20% in 2017.

  This increase in shareholding fully demonstrates the 天津夜网 controlling shareholder’s confidence in the company’s development prospects and recognition of the company’s value, and will also effectively boost the market’s confidence in the company.

This round of non-plague situation has reduced the company’s expansion. Since 2019, the company has set an increase of nearly $ 1 billion to major shareholders, intends to issue no more than 1.6 billion convertible bonds, and obtain temporary shareholders’ equity of $ 4.8 billion.

US $ 13.7 billion transferred non-core assets to major shareholders Zhengbang crop protection, and went all out to strengthen and expand the pig breeding business.

Breeder assets have exploded, and biosafety prevention and control has been upgraded.

① Sufficient breeding pig resources.

The company has GGP, a total of about 150,000 GP breeding pigs, which are distributed in Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Sichuan and other places; 65 sows were listed at the end of September this year.

30,000, of which 35 can breed sows.

20,000 heads, 30 reserve sows.

10,000 pigs. By the end of 2019, the company’s sow inventory will reach or exceed 1.2 million heads. We expect that the number of pigs released in 2020 will reach 11-13 million heads.

② Comprehensively improve biosafety prevention and control.

The biological safety prevention and control of the pig farm is a key factor affecting the survival of the pig farm. The company comprehensively inspects the self-built feed factory, self-built pig farm, and cooperative farmers’ farms in terms of software and hardware occupation of biological safety prevention and control.Comprehensively improve the biological safety prevention and control of pig farms.

During the grassroots research process, we learned that in October the company has comprehensively combed and adjusted the SOP, with immediate results and a new level of biosecurity prevention and control capabilities.

Profit forecast, estimation and investment rating This round of non-epidemic diseases has also caused severe deterioration in the productivity of its ancestral breeder pigs. It takes 28 months to grow from a great ancestor breeder to a binary breeder. The restoration of production capacity will be a long process;The ternary breeding will inevitably lead to a serious deterioration of production efficiency, and it may last for several years until the high pig price.

  According to the company’s monthly report in the past two months, the weight of fattening pigs on the slaughtering pig has risen sharply from about 98 kg in September to 111 kg in October and 115 in November.

28 kg. This indicator reflects the company’s good results in the prevention and control of epidemic diseases. Based on the average price in October and November, we can infer that the company’s monthly net profit from pig breeding reached or exceeded 500 million. The company’s operating inflection point has now been reached.
  We estimate that the company will produce 5.7 million pigs, 12 million pigs and 15 million pigs in 2019-2021, corresponding to a revenue of 224.

600 million, 497.

200 million, 568.

9 trillion, the predicted net profit attributable to mother is 24.

100 million, 184.

600 million, 194.

90,000 yuan (Democratic forecast of net profit to mother 25.

400 million, 182.

800 million, 161.

300 million), an increase of 1145 each year.

2%, 666.

3%, 5.

6%, corresponding to EPS0.

99 yuan, 7.

55 yuan, 7.

97 yuan.

  The hog sector is more than 10 times PE at a profit high. We give the company 5 times PE in 2020 and slightly raise the target price to 37.75 yuan, to maintain the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: pig price rises less than expected; blight.

Qixingxingchen (002439): Strategic new business scale is now beginning to actively expand the security operation center

Qixingxingchen (002439): Strategic new business scale is now beginning to actively expand the security operation center

Event: Recently, Qixingxingchen released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 25 in 2018.

22 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

68%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company5.

69 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

90%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company after deduction.

360,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.


Opinion: Steady growth in performance and continued high R & D investment.

The company’s 2018 performance achieved solid growth, in which the related revenue growth was affected to some extent due to the completion of the replacement of the subsidiary Anfang Hi-Tech and certain industry factors.

Due to changes in the accounting method of the company’s shareholding company Hengan Jiaxin, the company generated some investment income, so the company’s net profit attributable to mothers increased faster than revenue.

The company’s gross profit margin increased slightly, and its net profit margin increased by about 2.

78 up to 22.

twenty one%.

The company’s expense ratio remained stable, with R & D investment reaching 5.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

54%, accounting for more than 20% of total revenue.

The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 2018 was 3.

1 billion, down 30 a year.

18%, the scale of bills receivables and accounts receivables has grown rapidly, with a year-to-year growth rate of 31.


Make breakthroughs in strategic new business and achieve scale sales.

The company’s smart city security operations, industrial internet security, cloud security and other strategic emerging businesses have begun to scale. In 2018, they achieved sales of about 400 million and confirmed revenues of more than 200 million.

Among them, smart city security operations have been established / under construction in 20 cities including Chengdu, Jinan, Qingdao, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Nanchang, Sanmenxia, Panzhihua, etc., to help cities improve their overall security capabilities.

The company obtained the first batch of the highest qualifications for national information security services-the national information security assessment information security service qualification certificate.

Based on industrial control terminal security, border protection, industrial control anomaly detection, industrial control leak detection and industrial control SOC and other products oriented to the industrial Internet security management and control platform, the company has made breakthroughs in advanced manufacturing, petroleum and petrochemical, power, military, rail transportation and tobacco industries.

In the field of cloud security, the company has products such as Yunzi Trusted Enterprise Terminal Security Cloud Platform, Cloud Threat Intelligence Platform, and website anti-D cloud for small, medium and micro enterprises.

Traditional network security products maintain a leading edge and build autonomous and controllable products.

According to IDC data, in 2018, the company’s market share in IDS / IPS and UTM products ranked first in China, and VPN products ranked second in the industry.

The company’s TSOC TSOC platform was again shortlisted in the Gartner SIEM Magic Quadrant, becoming the only Chinese security vendor to be shortlisted for Gartner SIEM for two consecutive years, leading the domestic market.

In 2018, the company submitted 292 original breakthroughs to CNVD, with high-risk and high-risk breakthroughs accounting for 重庆耍耍网 94%, ranking first in the “Enterprise Original Score Ranking”, showing the company’s competitive advantage in the field of breakthroughs and security technology.

In terms of self-controllability, the company joined hands with Tianjin Feiteng to create a high-performance self-controllable gateway-type product. In addition, it also launched a new generation of self-controllable domestically produced firewall NGFW products.

Earnings forecast and rating: What do we expect in 2019?
The company’s operating income will be 31 in 2021.

68, 38.

58, 45.

920,000 yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 6 respectively.

82, 7.

97, 9.
1.7 billion, based on the latest share capital 8.
The calculated dilutive yield of 9.7 billion shares is 0.

76, 0.

89, 1.

02 yuan, the latest PE corresponding to 38, 32, 28 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk factors: increased competition risks; less-than-expected risks in security operation services; and less-than-expected orders in some industries.

Shengyi Technology (600183) Interim Review: Growth Exceeds Expectations, Overweight Shows Ambitions

Shengyi Technology (600183) Interim Review: Growth Exceeds Expectations, Overweight Shows Ambitions

Event: On August 12, the company released its semi-annual report, and achieved operating income of 59 in the first half of 2019.

73 ppm, an increase of 2 per year.

85%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 6.

29 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

02%, the net profit of non-attributed mothers is reduced by 5.

92 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.


  Investment points: Copper clad sheet + prepreg: affected by the price of raw materials, the income has shifted slightly, and profitability has increased significantly.

In the first half of this year, the sales area of the company’s copper-clad laminates and prepregs increased at the same time compared with the same period of last year. However, because the prices of the main raw materials (copper foil and fiberglass cloth) of the current copper-clad laminates are lower than the same period of last year, the company’s products are under pressureAs a result, the company’s revenue from this business has decreased. In 2019H1, the company’s copper clad laminates and prepregs contributed revenue 46.

3.9 billion, a decline of 2 every year.

32%, of course, also because of the price reduction of raw materials, the company’s profitability of copper clad laminates and prepregs has improved significantly. The gross profit margin of this business in 2019H1 increased by 4 compared with the same period last year.

4 pct.

To reach 22.


  In the previous company’s in-depth report, we have already sorted out the past changes in China’s communications system that have helped the company’s copper laminate production capacity. In the second half of this year, 5G construction has gradually entered a peak period. At the same time, Shaanxi Shengyi cashed in the second half.Expansion of the production capacity of 4.2 million square meters per year of copper clad laminates, Jiangxi Shengyi Phase I (12 million square meters per year) is also expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2020. The company has arrived at a new stage of high growth in copper clad laminates and prepregs.

Printed circuit boards: Revenue and profits have increased significantly. Benefiting from 5G is expected to usher in new growth.

Although the sales area of the subsidiary Shengyi Electronics PCB decreased (463.

620,000 feet / -15.

46%), but operating income increased significantly (12.

$ 8.3 billion / +28.

04%), profitability has also been significantly improved, and gross profit margin reached 32.

73%, an increase of 9 compared with the same period last year.

13 points.

  In terms of production capacity, as of 2018, Shengyi Electronics must increase PCB production capacity by about 13 million feet / year (about 120 square meters / year), which is expected to increase by about 30% this year. Currently, it has planned to invest in Ji’an to expand production, with a phase of 700,000 square meters.Annual production capacity, construction period is two years.

Like copper clad laminates, 5G construction will provide a clear impetus for the company’s new PCB production capacity. At the same time, it will gradually increase the average price and profitability of PCB products. In the next two years, the PCB business will promote the company’s overall performance flexibility.

High-frequency copper clad laminates: gradually entering the capacity phase, and is expected to become the main force of domestic substitution.

The company has mastered the production process of hydrocarbon copper clad laminates through self-developed methods. By purchasing a full set of processes, technologies and equipment solutions from Japan’s ZTE Corporation, it has obtained the physical energy for the preparation of PTFE products.

The subsidiary Jiangsu Shengyi is mainly responsible for the production and preparation of high-frequency boards. It has been put into production in 6 months. It is currently in the ramp-up phase of production capacity. If the subsequent progress goes smoothly, it will open up new growth space for the company.

At present, the global PTFE market is almost monopolized by Rogers. Considering the US export restrictions on Huawei, the replacement of PTFE copper clad laminates is expected to become the future in the case of improved product quality. 2?
In the three-year trend, the company’s planned 重庆耍耍网 PTFE production capacity far exceeds other domestic counterparts, and it is expected to fully benefit in the future.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: Maintain Buy rating.

The construction of 5G base stations will drive the demand for copper-clad laminates, prepregs and PCBs, and supplementary production capacity (Jiangxi Shengyi, Jiangsu Shengyi Special Materials, Ji’an PCB projects) will be successively launched, which will form the most direct driving force for the company’s revenue and performance growth.Effect, we expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 12 respectively.

02 billion, 14.

4.1 billion and 16.

88 trillion, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 41.

73, 34.

80 and 29.
72 times. Considering the company’s leading position in the field of copper clad laminates and the possibility of further growth in future performance, we maintain the Buy rating.
Risk reminders: (1) Rising upstream raw material prices reduce the company’s profitability; (2) 5G base station construction progress is less than expected; (3) PTFE capacity climbs less than expected.

Zhengbang Technology (002157) Coverage Report for the First Time: Dispersed Production Capacity, High Flexibility in Pig Production

Zhengbang Technology (002157) Coverage Report for the First Time: Dispersed Production Capacity, High Flexibility in Pig Production

The company’s business is driven by feed + pig breeding.

The company started from the feed business, and its focus shifted to the development of pig breeding around 2011. In 2018, the number of pigs slaughtered was 5.54 million, making it the third largest pig breeding company in China.

In the first half of 2018, the proportion of feed and aquaculture business revenue accounted for 70% and 25, respectively.


Production capacity is accelerating, and pig prices reverse into the right upward channel.

Since the outbreak of the agricultural plague in Africa in August 2018, production capacity has been significantly reduced.

The number of sows in stock can be multiplied, and the number of live pigs in stock is accelerated. In February 2019, 16 were inserted separately.

6%, 19.

1%; the intention to fill the pen is sluggish, and piglet prices are at historically low levels.

In addition, the embargo policy has resulted in an excess of live pigs in the main producing areas of the North, which has led to low pig prices and a significant reduction in power generation.

After the Spring Festival in 2019, the traditional consumer off-season pig price did not fall but rose instead, reflecting the current shortage of production capacity, and the pig price reversed and transformed.

Environmental protection superimposed epidemics, eliminated a large number of free-range farmers and small and medium-sized farms, and promoted the scale of the industry.

Large-scale farms have the advantages of low breeding costs, resistance to cycle changes, standardized environmental protection, and strong inspection and quarantine power.

The current market share of large-scale farming CR 10 is only 8.

06%, the company ranked third, large-scale breeding development space is large.

The company’s pig farming layout is scattered, and the volume and profit are rising.

The company’s production capacity distribution is scattered, which can effectively disperse risks. Most of the production capacity distribution is located in Jiangxi, Guangdong, Northeast China, and Hubei. The number of listings in severely affected areas is 18%, which is lower than other companies in the industry.

The company’s pig production volume has increased rapidly, with a CAGR of 52% in 2015-18, which is mainly due to 1) In 2015, it began to experiment with the “company + farm” model and broke through the rapid expansion of self-built pig farms;The second private placement financing expansion and expansion of the parent-generation breeding farm project increased the reserve capacity, and the capacity expansion increased rapidly.

According to the company’s biological assets, the number of pigs slaughtered in 2019 is estimated to be 44 in the first half of 2018.

420,000 heads, assuming that sows can breed in stock by the end of 201840.

An increase of 40,000 heads according to MSY is about 20, corresponding to 8 million pigs in 2019.

The company’s hog breeding cost has further room for improvement: In 2017, due to the purchase of a large number of piglets, the conversion of the pig farm resulted in an average hair cost per head of 1378.

7 yuan / head, higher than comparable companies in the same industry.

In 2018, the company’s business model has matured, pig farm reconstruction has been basically completed, and the output of breeding management technology has been improved. With the gradual release of production capacity, the cost of head breeding will gradually decrease.

Profit forecast and estimation.

It is estimated that the company’s slaughter volume in 2018/19/20 will be 554/800/10 million heads, and the revenue will be 220.



27 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

1% / 34.

5% / 25.


Expected net profit attributable to mothers in 2018/19/201.



24 trillion, the current market value corresponding to PE is 257.

7x / 18.
3x / 8.

Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk, pig production volume is less than expected, pig price increase is less than expected, 北京夜网 risk of epidemic outbreak and natural disaster, food safety risk.

Poly Real Estate (600048): Steady growth in annual performance and high prepayment collection coverage

Poly Real Estate (600048): Steady growth in annual performance and high prepayment collection coverage

Event: On the evening of April 15, the company announced its 18-year results and entered the company to realize operating income in 1945.

140,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +32.

66%; net profit attributable to mother was 189.

40,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +20.

92%, deducting non-net profit 180.

5 billion, a year-on-year increase of +16.


Steady growth in performance: 18 years of profitable companies realized operating income.

140,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +32.

66%; net profit attributable to mother was 189.

40,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +20.

92%, deducting non-net profit 180.

5 billion, a year-on-year increase of +16.


The increase in revenue was mainly due to the expansion of the carry-over scale, with an initial settlement area of 1518.

740 thousand countries, carry-over income 1824.

US $ 9.8 billion, of which 35% were the carry-over revenue of South China, East China, West China, North China, Central China, Northeast China, and overseas regions.

89%, 27.

55%, 12.

39%, 12.

11%, 8.

45%, 2.

61%, 1.


Attributable net profit quarterly quarterly, Q1?
Q4 growth rates were 0.

12%, 22.

32%, 18.

74%, 26.


The company’s gross profit margin increased by 1.

45pct to 32.

49%, mainly due to the increase in the carry-over project price, the gross profit margin of the real estate business carried forward to 32.

68%; net sales margin of companies from developing countries13.

44%, basically unchanged from 17 years.

Rich soil reserves: As of the end of 18 years, the company has a total of 10,390 acres of land under construction in 100 cities at home and abroad. The area to be developed is 9,154, which can meet the development needs of the next 2-3 years.

Among the areas to be developed, the first and second tiers account for 60%, and the core third and fourth tier cities around the urban agglomeration account for 30%. In terms of product structure, rigid demand and improved demand are the main types.Basically, ordinary houses below 144 square meters are mainly used to meet the mainstream market demand.

High sales strength and sound investment: 18,048 contract sales were achieved in 18 years, YOY + 30.
91%, of which the sales contribution of first-tier and second-tier cities and six core city clusters reached 77%.
The return amount was 3562 million, and the return rate was 88%, which was in the leading level in the industry, providing the company with a large amount of operating cash flow protection.

A total of 132 new projects were added to the company, with a new floor area ratio of 3116 and a total land acquisition price of 1927 trillion. Of these, 75 projects were acquired through receipts, mergers and acquisitions, cooperative development, old city renovation, and industrial development.The proportion of the project area and amount is 58% and 54%; the average floor price of new projects previously increased to 6,186 yuan / square meter.

The total price of land is 47.

60%, land acquisition cost / average sales price is 44.


In 18 years, the company started construction area of 44.96 million countries, and completed area of 22.17 million countries.

In 2019, the company plans to invest 270 billion in direct investment, taking the 18-year sales repayment amount as a reference, and the direct investment accounted for 75% of the sales repayment amount.

80%; the planned new construction area is 45 million, a year-on-year increase of +2.

37%; the planned completion area is 27.5 million countries, a year-on-year increase of +21.


Controllable leverage ratio and sufficient funds: The company has integrated a diversified financing 上海夜网论坛 system to ensure redundant financing positions and highly competitive financing costs. At the end of the year, the company had interest rate and denied a scale of 2636.

57 trillion, of which 94 trillion was the amount of interest capitalized.

From the perspective of financing structure, the proportion of bank loans accounts for about 71%, and the proportion of direct financing is about 15%. The structure is reasonable, and the ability to resist risks has changed. From the perspective of comprehensive financing costs, the overall cost of interest denied is 5.

03%; In terms of leverage, the asset-liability ratio is 77.

97%, an increase of 0 from the end of 17 years.

69pct; asset and debt restructuring excluding advance receipts 42.

55%, shrinking 2 from the end 深圳桑拿网 of 17 years.

38pct; net debt ratio 80.

55%, a contraction of 5 from the end of 17 years.

82 points.

At the end of the period, the company had funds in hand of 1134.

310,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +66.

69%, monetary funds / (short-term borrowings + non-current debt due within one year) is 2.

33. Sufficient monetary funds and high short cash debt ratio.

Investment suggestion: The company focuses on the supplementation of first- and second-tier resources, and at the same time, merges and deepens the strategy of urban agglomerations, and increases the in-depth cultivation and penetration of third- and fourth-tier cities around the core cities; we expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.

93 yuan, 2.

26 yuan, 2.

52 yuan.

Maintain “Buy-A” investment rating and target price of 18 yuan in 6 months.

Risk Warning: The real estate market is less than expected, policy constraints, and the company’s operations are not up to expectations