Archives 2020

Yili (600887): Large single product revenue growth rate and market share continue to increase

Yili (600887): Large single product revenue growth rate and market share continue to increase

Key points of investment: The growth rate of large single products is stable, and the market share continues to increase due to (1) the continued decline of third- and fourth-tier channels and the development of new channels such as convenience stores;Strawberry oat flavor, the launch of new mango passion fruit, orange pineapple, and the promotion of high-end products of Jindian Juanshan; (3) the market launch of the parent brand premium sour milk shake, and the coverage of plant selection channels, the room temperature of Yili in the first half of this yearThe market share of the products has continued to increase. It is expected that the revenue growth of Jindian will be> 17%, and the growth rate of Amex will be> 20%.

Raw milk cost pressure has slightly increased, and product upgrade mitigation partially affected the raw milk purchase cost of 19H1 company + 6%, slightly exceeding the initial expected increase of 3% to 5%. It is expected that continuous improvement of product structure can alleviate some of the impact.

Due to the 上海夜网论坛 increase in the cost of raw milk, the company’s purchase of gifts in Q1 has decreased, and the gross profit margin has also increased by +0 every year.

7ppt, entering Q2, benefiting from the impact of increased downward adjustments, the company’s cost back-feeding channels and the effect of discounts on competing products. Q2 overall purchase gift strength increased slightly from the previous month, but it is still controllable.

Judging from the announced purchase prices of raw milk in the main producing areas, the price of raw milk this year shows a trend of not off-season. It is expected that the stocking of downstream products will be held during the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day. The price of raw milk is expected to maintain a growth rate of> 5% this year.

This year’s increase in raw milk prices is mainly due to 武汉夜网论坛 (1) the continued slump in raw milk prices, which has led to cattle rushes affecting high-yield cows; (2) the grave environmental protection policies have led to the closure and withdrawal of some ranches, and few more ranches;(3) The increase in the proportion of downstream high-end products has increased the demand for raw milk.

At present, some large ranches have plans to expand production, and they will initially increase their contribution in the second half of next year.

Under the high base last year, costs could be controlled under the influence of the World Cup. Last year, the company’s Q2 sales expense ratio reached 28.

35%, while the normal level is about 25%. This year, it is expected that Q2 will be placed online and offline at the expense rate. There will be about 3% of the cost space each time. The traditional transmission efficiency such as CCTV will be reduced. The company is also actively looking for products.The marketing of intermediate resources, diversified and differentiated business product marketing, and improving the efficiency of the use of expenses.

Earnings forecasts and estimates We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 894.

300 million / 992.

900 million / 1,073.

500 million, each year +13.

24% / 11.

02% / 8.

12%, net profit to mother is 71.

300 million / 81.

200 million / 92.

1 trillion each year +10.

5% / 14.

0% / 13.

4%, corresponding to EPS 1.

17 yuan / 1.

33 yuan / 1.

51 yuan, the company is currently expected to correspond to 19/20 PE of 28X / 24X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: Raw milk price rises more than expected / Intensified competition among dairy companies

Nengke (603859) Comments: Public Offering to Help Smart Manufacturing Pilot

Nengke (603859) Comments: Public Offering to Help Smart Manufacturing Pilot
I. Event: On November 25, the company publicly issued additional A shares to open subscriptions.The number of additional issues is 1,289.20,000 shares, 3 trillion of funds to be raised, of which 1.The $ 34 million budget “Product Life Cycle Collaboration Platform Based on Digital Alternatives” project, 76 million yuan is planned to be invested in the “High-end Manufacturing Assembly System Solution” project (“Engine Digital Assembly System Solution” and “Cylinder Workpiece Intelligence”Docking and assembling “system solutions”), and the remaining supplementary working capital.The results of the issuance and placing were announced on November 28. The successful issue plus resumption of trading on November 29.  Second, comments: Strengthen the first-mover advantage, expand business boundaries, and respond to the broad market. Strengthen the first-mover advantage: The company’s “digital replacement” technology is in its infancy internally, and Nenko has completed the Lenovo-made digital replacement.The project has the technical advantages of being recognized by major customers, and its first-mover advantage is obvious.Smart manufacturing as “Industry 4.The core of “0” is the driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. It is estimated that the market size of the intelligent manufacturing industry will reach 1 in 2019.US $ 9 trillion, of which the industrial software field of Nenko is the core of intelligent manufacturing, and the market size will reach US $ 168 billion.  According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the compound growth rate of the domestic industrial software industry market will exceed 10% in the next few years.  Nenko has increased its expansion and strengthened its first-mover advantage.  Expanding business boundaries: Nenko started from smart electrical, followed customer needs, and developed into smart manufacturing business, providing enterprises with end-to-end integration centered on product life cycle (PLM) and production process management (MES) as coreIntegration and business integration centered on enterprise resource planning (ERP).Revenue from the smart manufacturing business has grown 392% over the past three years.In the first half of this year, the smart manufacturing business accounted for more than three-quarters of its revenue.The success of the public increase will further expand the boundaries of the business and respond to the needs of different customers.The “engine digital assembly system solution” purchased by the company is very forward-looking. Due to the arrival of “National Six” standard, engine manufacturers will reinvest in production lines. Within 200 years, more than 200 assembly lines across the country have potential demand for the company’s products.  Third, investment recommendations We expect the EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.76/1合肥夜网.15/1.61 yuan, the corresponding PE is 31.3/20.5/14.7 times, PE (TTM) of the intelligent manufacturing sector is 25 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.  Fourth, risk warning: the receivables account period is further lengthened, and the new orders fall below expectations.

Tuobang (002139) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Gross Margin Level Improves, Demand in Downstream Industries picks up

Tuobang (002139) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Gross Margin Level Improves, Demand in Downstream Industries picks up

I. Overview of the event The company released the first quarter report of 2019: realized revenue 8.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 17 years.

19%; net profit attributable to mother is 52.02 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.

3%.

At the same time, the company released its forecast of operating results for the first six months: net profit of 16,443.

48-21,924.

640,000 yuan, an annual increase of 50% -100%.

  Second, analyze and judge the steady growth of revenue, the gross profit level rebounded. In the first quarter of 2019, revenue achieved a steady growth. Affected by the decline in the prices of upstream raw materials, the gross profit level improved significantly and rose to 22.

06%, so profits can achieve rapid 杭州夜网 growth.

The report estimates that the company’s R & D expenses increased by 14.58 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 45.

1%, mainly due to the expansion of new customer product development.

Leading company in intelligent controllers and new opportunities brought by the recovery of the downstream home appliance industry. The company is a global leader in the intelligent controller industry. Intelligent controllers, DC brushless motors and drivers are widely used in home, industrial, medical and other fields.

The downstream of the company is mainly the home appliance industry, which belongs to the post-real estate industry. Due to the rebound in residential completion area since the beginning of the year, the home appliance industry is expected to usher in rapid growth this year.

The 北京养生会所 trend of intelligent home appliances is significant, and the added value of products continues to increase. Through technological progress and continuous improvement in people’s requirements for quality of life, home appliances and various types of generic home appliances are undergoing a process of digital, intensive, and intelligent development, and intelligent control.The proportion of the development of appliances in the household appliance industry is getting higher and higher.

At the same time, the application of intelligent controllers in health and care products, industrial control and other fields has also been continuously developed. The continuous expansion of application fields will bring new opportunities to the intelligent controller industry.

The convertible bonds were issued smoothly and the capacity increase increased in the first quarter of 2019. The company issued convertible bonds with a cumulative total of 5.

The US $ 7.3 billion will be used for the construction of the operation center in East China. After the completion, 45 million sets of intelligent controllers will be added, which will gradually increase the company’s existing intelligent controller capacity, effectively alleviate the shortage of production capacity, and help the company to further develop the East China market.

In addition, the company’s Indian Industrial Park has completed infrastructure construction and is expected to be operational in the second half of 2019.

The construction of the second phase of the Huizhou Industrial Park is completed, and the capacity transfer is progressing steadily as planned. It is expected that the entire Huizhou Industrial Park will achieve a 6 billion production capacity scale after reaching production.

  Third, the profit forecast and investment recommendations predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

33, 0.

45 and 0.

56 yuan, corresponding to 19 times, 14 times and 11 times the PE.

In the past three years, the company’s minimum PE value and expectations are 16 and 41 times, respectively.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

  Fourth, risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; capacity expansion is less than expected.

Gemdale Group (600383) January 2020 Sales Data Review: Steady sales growth and caution

Gemdale Group (600383) January 2020 Sales Data Review: Steady sales growth and caution
Gemdale Group announced January sales data, and the company achieved a contract amount of 122 in January.4 ‰, an increase of 15 in ten years.2%; 61 signing area achieved.40,000 square meters, an increase of 32 in ten years.7%.In January, the company added 38 new construction surfaces.90,000 square meters, an increase of 137 in ten years.7%; total land price 31.10,000 yuan, an increase of 296 in ten years.6%.  Opinion: The sales in January continued to increase steadily, + 15% per year. It is expected that the long-term sales flexibility will reach 122 in January.400 million, down 65.5%, an increase of 15 per year.2%; 61 signing area achieved.40,000 square meters, down 66.5%, an annual increase of 32.7%; the average selling price of 19,935 yuan / flat, an increase of 2 quarter.8%, a decline of 13 per year.2%.We believe that due to the recent spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, there may be some pressure on the real estate market transactions in the first quarter, even affecting the gradual sales; but the demand for home purchases is only postponed, not disappeared.Sales account for a relatively small proportion, and it is expected that the overall sales may affect the controllability.In 南京夜生活网 addition, under the background of stable sales in the first-tier and second-tier markets; and the company is more aggressive in acquiring land in 2019, it is expected that the available sales will continue to be abundant in 2020, and at the same time, it will promote better sales flexibility. Land acquisition in January was prudent, and land acquisition amounted to 25%, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation. In January, the company acquired Harbin and Qingdao in the land market for a total of 3 projects.  In January, the company added 38 new construction surfaces.90,000 square meters, down 74 from the previous month.7%, an annual increase of 137.7%; corresponding to the total land price of 31.10,000 yuan, down 56.6%, an annual increase of 296.6%; the amount of land acquisition accounts for 25% of the sales amount.4%, 56 over the previous year.0% down 30.6pct; land acquisition area accounts for 63% of sales area.3%, compared with 120 in the previous year.5% down 57.2pct; average floor price of 7,995 yuan / square meter, an increase of 71 from the previous month.9%, an annual increase of 66.8%, a decrease of 11,070 yuan / m2 from the previous year.9%; the average price of land is 40% of the average monthly sales price.1%, compared with 46 in the previous year.5% down 6.4pct.We are selling at an average price of 2.0 million yuan / flat growth company in January added value of 7.8 billion yuan, over the same period sales of 12.2 billion yuan. Investment suggestion: Sales should increase steadily, and land acquisition should be prudent. Maintaining a “strong push” rating. Gemdale Group is one of the old-fashioned leading real estate companies. Its 30-year stable history and high proportion of insurance capital demonstrate the past balanced development and high dividend dividend tradition.Second-tier + start-up actively promotes ample saleability + 19 years to keep the land actively, the company’s sales flexibility in 2020 is better.At the end of 19H1, 80% of the company’s total soil reserves were on the first and second tiers, and the advance receipts covered a high of one.8 times to ensure the stable release of future performance.We maintain the company’s profit forecast for 2019-21 to 2.24, 2.69 yuan and 3.17 yuan, corresponding to only 5 in 19/20 PE.8/4.8 times, 18A / 19E dividend yield is as high as 4.6% / 5.8%, maintaining target price of 18.83 yuan to maintain the “strong push” level. Risk reminder: Real estate industry policy tightens more than expected and industry funds tighten more than expected

Jianyou Co., Ltd. (603

707): Enoy Approved in the U.S. for Faster-than-Expected Injection Export Leaders

Jianyou Co., Ltd. (603707): Enoy Approved in the U.S. for Faster-than-Expected Injection Export Leaders

1.

Event: On the evening of December 1, the company announced that it had received the USP ANDA certification notice of enoxaparin sodium injection issued by the US FDA, and a total of 7 specifications were approved.

  2.

Our Analysis and Judgment (1) Enoxaparin was listed in the US at a faster-than-expected rate. The competitive advantage of Enoxaparin Sodium Injection, which was finally approved by the US FDA in early December, was faster than expected.

We expect the company to launch in late 2020Q1 and early in 2019Q4, which may be reflected in the statements.

  Enoxaparin is one of the dominant varieties in the field of anticoagulation.

Enoxaparin is the most widely used of low-molecular-weight heparin. The indications approved by the FDA include: (1) Prevention of venous thromboembolic disease (prevention of intravenous thrombosis), especially thrombosis related to orthopedics or general surgery.

(2) Treatment of deep vein thrombosis that has formed, with or without pulmonary embolism.

(3) The clinical symptoms are not serious, excluding pulmonary embolism that requires surgery or thrombolytic therapy.

(4) Treatment of unstable angina pectoris and non-Q wave myocardial infarction, combined with aspirin.

(5) Used in extracorporeal circulation of hemodialysis to prevent thrombosis.

Although more convenient direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) have been introduced in the future, low-molecular-weight heparin has safety advantages over it: low liver and kidney toxicity, low risk of bleeding, possible reversibility, and targeting cancer patients and pregnancyPeople must use low-molecular-weight heparin, so enoxaparin still has its wide market and cannot be replaced.

According to the SHS database, in the United States in 2018, Enoxaparin brand drugs + generic drugs totaled 2 billion US dollars, and even slightly 7% in the first three quarters of 19 years.

Although the market size tends to be stable, it is expected that the market size will continue as its indication is just demand.

  Enoxaparin has an excellent competition pattern in the United States. Currently, there are 4 ANDA companies in production, including high approval barriers.

Sanofi’s original Enoxaparin was initially listed in 1993. Since then, generic pharmaceutical companies that have received ANDA approval include: Sandoz (2010), Amphastar (2011), Teva (2014), Apotex (2018) and today’s Jianyou.

However, in July 2018, Sandoz notified the FDA and its customers that it will stop supplying enoxaparin generic drugs, and according to its partner analysis, the probability of restarting supply in the future is very small.

So now there are a total of 4 original pharmaceutical companies + 4 generic pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. market producing this variety.
The five suppliers belong to a very good competition pattern.

  FDA’s strict approval of Enoxaparin will not worsen the future competition.

The FDA believes that the approval of enoxaparin generic drugs involves multiple challenges, including: (1) Enoxaparin has a complex chemical structure, so the FDA requires five consistency of generic drugs.

Physical and chemical properties are equal; 2.

2. Heparin raw material source and depolymerization method are the same; 3.

Disaccharide structural unit, fragment map and low melting point sequence are equal; 4.

Biological and biochemical tests are equal; 5.

Human Pharmacodynamic Equivalence Study.

(B) Enoxaparin generics are required for immunogenicity studies: Standard heparin is known to cause adverse reactions called immunogenic reactions, such as heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT).

Low-molecular-weight heparin is made from standard heparin, but its hit rate is lower than standard heparin.

The FDA hopes that manufacturers of enoxaparin products will prove that their products do not pose a higher risk of these or other dangerous reactions than Lovenox.

(3) Control of the uncertainty risk of the drug substance.

  The company is China’s first Enoxaparin manufacturer of ANDA approved by the US FDA. It has achieved a half-and-a-half-year exclusive agency agreement and is expected to significantly increase profits in the future.

In December 2016, the company signed an agreement with Sagent: Sagent is entitled to enjoy the exclusive sales right of Enoxaparin Sodium in designated areas within the first six months of the period.

Six months later, before the contract expires (within ten years of commercialization of the product), Sagent enjoys semi-exclusive rights.

That is, in addition to Sagent, six months after the product is launched, the issuer looks for an agent or organizes its own sales, but the sellers in this market must not exceed a part.

From the third anniversary of the completion of the first commercial sale of the product, Sagent agreed to maintain a market share of no less than 8% each year.

According to this agreement, we think that the company is 10% with the help of a supplementary 成都桑拿网 agent in a steady state?
20% of the US market share is expected, combined with the future of the US enoxaparin market 15?

About 1.8 billion US dollars, this variety can contribute to the company1.
5?3
Annual income of about $ 500 million.

Under the background of API integration, it can significantly increase profits.
  (2) The effects of swine fever continued, including the price increase of heparin preparations in Enoxaparin. The pig inventory caused by African swine fever continued to decline, and the number of fertile sows remained lower, and the price of crude heparin had increased.

  Since August last year, the African swine fever epidemic began to spread from north to south, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of pigs slaughtered and a tight supply of crude products.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of live pigs in the country in September 19 was 1.

9 billion heads, a year-on-year decrease of 41%; capable of breeding 19.24 million sows, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; and the decline of the two is still deepening.

The average hog price in 22 provinces and cities reached an absolute high in ten years in early November. It has fallen back to November (the level in October). It is considered to be the state ‘s place to put frozen meat and farmers to sell large pigs.Although the tension between supply and demand has actually been reversed.

The unit price of crude heparin is also rising, and the current price has exceeded 3.

5 million / billion units.

We believe that it takes 6-8 months for the price of pigs to rise to the price of crude heparin, and the real increase in the price of pigs since September, indicating that the price of crude products may increase and appreciate in the future.

  Typical manufacturers of heparin preparations have made it clear that the rise of raw materials will swallow profits, and the critical point of price increases may come.

For example, Fresenius Kabi, an important heparin preparation manufacturer in the European and American markets, sent a letter directly to American customers for weighing in the middle of 19 years. Due to the tight supply of APIs, it began to limit the shipment of heparin products based on historical demand.

At his 19Q3 earnings call, Fresenius made it clear that although the company ‘s revenue for heparin preparations increased strongly in 19Q3, revenue growth did not increase EBIT, and profits were swallowed up by raw material costs, and future trends are expected to continue.

Therefore, we judge that the overall market for heparin preparations has a tendency to increase prices.

As an integrated drug substance and preparation company, the company holds a large amount of inventory. Whether it is segmentation, price increase or volume control, it has a great substitute for the company’s volume of preparations.

  (3) The export of injectables has continued to expand, and in the future, it is expected to benefit from the consistent evaluation of the US regulatory market. The injectables industry has very high barriers. Enoxaparin and other important varieties have been approved in the EU and the United States, which illustrates the company’s strength;The formal restart of the consistency evaluation of injectables is also conducive to nurturing the domestic market. The return of US-listed products to the United States can change the time required to market and reduce research and development costs.

  3.

Investment suggestion: We are optimistic about the company’s future development prospects.

The company’s forward-looking large-scale reserve of crude heparin has a prominent value, and the right to speak will be significantly enhanced. The prosperity of the heparin API business will help to continue to improve.

At the same time, the company’s export business logic for injections continued to materialize, and performance broke out soon.

In 2018, 4 ANDAs were approved, and 10 ANDAs are expected to be approved year after year.

In addition, the company’s domestic low-molecular-weight heparin preparation business has entered an explosive growth phase.

We are optimistic that the company’s future performance will maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 6 in 2019-2021.

04/8.

55/11.

US $ 1.6 billion (considering that Enoxaparin has not started its issuance in the US, we have not adjusted the profit forecast for the time being, and readjusted after the issue scale is clear), the corresponding EPS is 0.

84/1.

19/1.

55 yuan, corresponding to 46/33/25 times the PE.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

  4.

Risk reminder: The price of heparin raw materials continues to fall below expectations, the price of crude heparin rises too fast, the export business of injections falls short of expectations, and the risk of R & D falls short of expectations.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607): Industrial profitability of core product group will remain stable

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607): Industrial profitability of core product group will remain stable

Recent situation of the company 杭州夜网论坛We organized a series of non-trading roadshows of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong and Shenzhen last week. We believe that the company is expected to achieve industrial and commercial two-wheel drive: 1) Industrial sector, continuous optimization of product structure, consistency evaluation to promote cornering overtakingRich structure and effective ability to resist policy risks; 2) Circulation segment, market share is expected to further increase, and profitability will be promoted to remain stable; 3) Research, continuous expansion, combination of counterfeiting, independent research and development and business development are two-wheel drive.

Comment Industry: The product structure is constantly optimized to create core product groups.

The company has selected 60 industrial products as its core varieties.

From January to September, 60 key varieties earned 101.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 31 in ten years.

2%, with an average gross profit margin of 71.

7%.

In terms of large varieties, tanshinone IIA is expected to reach 1.5 billion US dollars in the next 1-2 years; polymyxin B sulfate for injection (exclusive variety) is expected to exceed 500 million in the next 1-2 years; eureklin for injection (a new class of drugs) It was announced last week that it was included in the national medical insurance, which will help promote the breed in the future.

Business: Profitability is expected to remain solid, consolidating the import drug service provider sector.

The market competition in the distribution industry is expected to further deepen. Hengqiang, the leading player, has acquired Kangdele China and Liaoning Medical Trade in the past two years.

The company actively develops the import drug distribution business. The unit price and gross profit of such drugs generally exceed generic drugs, and its customers are sticky.

Among the imported new drugs approved by China in the first three quarters of 2019, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals obtained total distribution rights for 13 varieties.

R & D: Independent R & D and business development two-wheel drive.

Total R & D funding (including capitalization) in 2018.

9 trillion, accounting for industrial income7.

1%.

In terms of independent research and development, the company expects that the small molecule innovative drug Leitengshu (anti-AIDS indication) and the renin inhibitor SPH3127 will attempt to enter phase III clinical trials in 2021 and the second half of 2020, respectively.

In terms of cooperation and expansion, in November 2019, the company cooperated with Shuntian Pharmaceutical on the LT3001 project (a first-class new drug). LT3001 has now started phase II clinical trials in the United States and Taiwan.

It is recommended to maintain the RMB exchange rate for 2019/20 earnings forecast1.

54 yuan and 1.

71 yuan, corresponding to 12.

6% and 11.重庆耍耍网

1% growth.

The current A-share contradiction corresponds to November 2019/2020.

4 times / 10.

3 times price-earnings ratio.

The stock maintains an Outperform rating and 24.

Target price of 50 yuan (corresponding to 2019/20 price-earnings ratio of 15).

9 times / 14.

3 times, 39.

84% upside).

The current contradiction between H shares corresponds to August 2019/2020.

2 times / 7.

4x price-earnings ratio.

H shares maintain an outperform industry rating and 20.

10 Target price reached (corresponding to November 2019/20.

7/10.

5 times price-earnings ratio, 43.37% upside).

The risk R & D progress was less than expected, and brought a lot of procurement pressure.

Depth-Company-Qibin Group (601636): Flat glass original film leading high score conversion safety margin

Depth * Company * Qibin Group (601636): Flat glass original film leading high score conversion safety margin

The company is a leader in the flat glass industry, with pure standards.

The company has 26 production lines in the Democratic Party bases in four provinces including Guangdong.

Foreign Malay production capacity has been set on fire.

At present, the company’s production capacity has been fully released.

As a leader in the industry, the company has a high market share, a high percentage of annual dividends, solid fundamentals, and is a rare cash cow.

The key adjustment amount of the support level first fell and then rose, and the profit indicator per ton improved: the company’s 2018 flat glass output1.

99.9 billion heavy boxes, an increase of 6.

79%; sales volume 1.

100 million heavy boxes, an increase of 6.

53%.

Affected by the low level of completion, the number of companies in the first half of the year decreased and gradually improved afterwards.

However,重庆耍耍网 the highest price continued to fall. The minimum gross profit per box fell to 17 yuan, and the net profit fell to 10 yuan.

Have an impact on the company’s profit level.

Overseas production capacity was fully released, and overseas revenue increased significantly: Malay production capacity was released, and overseas revenue for the year was 800 million, even a significant increase of 208.

24%; gross profit 1.

6.6 billion.

Assume that the overseas revenue mainly comes from Malay, the single container price is 80 yuan, and the capacity utilization of Malay is close to 100%, resulting in full release.

Give full play to the leading advantages of the enterprise and accelerate the industrial layout: the company has gradually advanced in the field of deep processing.

Zhejiang, Guangdong, Malaysia energy-saving glass deep-processing projects have begun to run; Yinzhou photovoltaic photovoltaic substrate production line has been ignited in September 2018; Liling high-performance electronic glass project was promoted in mid-2018, and is expected to be put into use in 2020.

The company’s industrial layout will continue to be optimized.

Leaders under the rebound of completion and real estate sales are expected to fully benefit: the current real estate sales are picking up, completion is expected to rebound, glass adjustment volume promotes the rebound, and the company as a leader in the industry is expected to fully benefit.

It is estimated that the company’s fundamentals are stable and its profitability is strong. It is a rare cash cow.

It is expected that from 2019 to 2021, the company’s revenue will be 91.

64, 96.

67, 101.

51 ppm; net profit attributable to mothers is 13.

61, 14.

47, 15.

71 ppm; EPS is 0.

51, 0.

54, 0.

58, maintain the company’s buy rating.

The main risks facing rating Glass inventory continues to accumulate, product prices continue to fall, and demand rebounds less than expected.

Gree Electric (000651): President Dong talks about how to achieve the goal of 600 billion yuan

Gree Electric (000651): President Dong talks about how to achieve the goal of 600 billion yuan

The company’s recent situation On January 7th, a reporter from Ri Cai Xin Weekly interviewed the chairman of the board, Ms. Dong Mingzhu, and issued an exclusive interview report on January 18.

600 billion revenue targets: 1) President Dong initially proposed in August 2018 to achieve the 600 billion sales target by 2023.

In this interview, Mr. Dong stated that he would continue to insist and hoped that the industrial sector’s revenue share would increase to 30% and the non-air-conditioning home appliance business would also increase its share.

2) Be cautious about overseas investments and in principle will not merge.

3) 3 billion investment in Wingtech (600745).

SH), 2 billion investment in Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.

(SH) is because it has industrial synergy with Gree and supports national strategy.

In 1H19, Gree’s own air-conditioning chips reached 100 million pieces.

Mixed state-owned enterprise reform: 1) President Dong participates in the mixed state-owned enterprise reform for the purpose of long-term holding and strives to pay off related debts in 5-8 years.

2) Hope that Gao Yong holds it for a long time; it can help Gree broaden its horizons and thinking, bring new ideas; and exert industrial synergy in Gree’s upstream and downstream.

3) There will be a reasonable dividend, but it will not be paid based on the merger.

Successor: I have tried to train successors several times in the past few years. They are qualified for a single business, but they will encounter problems when they are integrated.

Sales and marketing were decentralized for three years and did not meet the expectations of President Dong. Recently, he has personally been responsible for sales.

In the future, we will continue to train successors.

杭州夜网 Comment on diversification is Gree’s development strategy, the direction is in the expansion of home appliance categories and industrial sectors (molds, intelligent equipment, etc.).

Whether there will be a major breakthrough in 2020, we will further observe that the current market is mainly concerned with air conditioning business.

The company mainly invests in semiconductors through equity participation. At present, the investment of Wingtech and Sanan Optoelectronics has risen by 380% and more than 150%.

We are optimistic about the estimated international convergence after the improvement of the governance structure, and we do not have to worry about the price war in the short-term air-conditioning market.

The high-intensity price war since Double Eleven in 2019 will reshape the competitive landscape 合肥夜网 of the air-conditioning industry, and the share of second-tier brands will rapidly decline.

We expect that Gree will have more adjustments in sales channels and marketing methods in 2020, better adapt to the channel channelization, and the trend of increasing online share.

Estimates suggest that we maintain our EPS forecast for 2019/2020/20214.

52/5.

20/6.

03 yuan.

Maintain Outperform industry rating and target price of 78.

00 yuan, corresponding to 17x / 15x / 13x 2019/20 / 21e P / E, an increase of 14%.

The company currently expects 15x / 13x / 11x 2019/20 / 21e P / E.

Risk Market demand fluctuation risk; market competition risk.

Zhongnan Construction (000961): Optimized Debt Structure Performance Growth

Zhongnan Construction (000961): Optimized Debt Structure Performance Growth

Event Zhongnan Construction released the 2019 semi-annual report: The company achieved operating income of 233 in the first half of 2019.

2 ppm, an annual increase of 52%; net profit attributable to mothers13.

100 million US dollars, a year-on-year growth of 42%, basically reached zero profit.

35 yuan.

Comments on performance growth are eye-catching, and future performance reserves are abundant.

In the first half 无锡夜网 of 2019, the company realized operating income of 233.

2 ‰, an increase of 52% in ten years; net profit attributable to mother 13.

100 million, an increase of 42% in ten years.

The rapid growth in revenue growth was mainly due to the expansion of the real estate settlement scale and the significant increase in the completion of construction business. Due to the difference in settlement structure, the company’s gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 19.

91%, falling by 2 every year.

31 per share; net interest margin 5.

63%, a decline of 0 every year.

43 units.

As of the end of June 2019, the company’s advance receipts amounted to $ 1283 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 39%, which is 3% of long-term revenue in 2018.

2 times, future performance growth is guaranteed.

Considerable sales, prudent 深圳spa会所 investment, and continued to improve the national layout.

In the first half of 2019, the company achieved sales of US $ 81.2 billion, an increase of 24% year-on-year, with a sales area of 6.45 million square meters, an increase of 24% throughout the year.

From the perspective of land acquisition, the company newly entered Jinan, Xiamen, Jieyang and other cities in the first half of the year, and added 27 new projects. The land acquisition area reached 4.2 million square meters, a decrease of 63%.The average land price of new projects is about 6,300 yuan / square meter, which is significantly higher than the average land price level of 4,300 yuan / square meter last year.

The scale of the company’s soil storage continued to expand. As of the end of June 2019, the company had a total of 325 projects, with 32.14 million square meters of development projects under construction and 13.09 million square meters of projects not started.

Of the 45.23 million square meters of project resources that can be completed in the future, the area of the first, second and third lines is 39% and 61% respectively.

The operating cash flow is good and the structure is denied.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s operating cash inflow was 580.

1 ppm is an interest-denying 3 due within one year.

3 times; the company’s sales receipts are in good condition, with monetary funds of 249.

450,000 yuan obviously exceeds all interest-bearing debts to be repaid within one year.

As of the end of June 2019, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 91.

23%, other debt after excluding advances accounted for only 43.
.

35%, a decrease of 1 from the end of 18 years.

62 averages, the actual operating risk is small.

Investment suggestion: Zhongnan Construction Budget has undergone a systematic strategic adjustment from top to bottom, and major changes are taking place. The company’s operating efficiency continues to accelerate with the help of the introduction of outstanding talents and enhanced incentives.

Based on the company’s high sales growth, profitability continued to improve, and performance ushered in a rapid release.

We expect EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

09, 1.

88, 2.

RMB 47, corresponding to PE of 6.

80, 3.

97, 3.
01 times, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: industry sales fluctuations; policy adjustments leading to operational risks; changes in financing environment; corporate operating risks; exchange rate fluctuation risks; shed reform monetization fails to meet expectations

New City Holdings (601155): Residential + Commercial Qi Fei’s performance exceeded 10 billion

New City Holdings (601155): “Residential + Commercial” Qi Fei’s performance exceeded 10 billion

Event Xincheng Holdings released the 2018 annual report: 2018 realized operating income of 541.

33 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

58%; net profit attributable to mother 104.

910,000 yuan, an increase of 74 in ten years.

02%; basic profit income 4.

69 yuan, expected average return on net assets 41.

91%.

Comments on profitability continued to improve, net profit attributable 北京夜生活网 to mothers exceeded 10 billion.

Xincheng Holdings achieved an operating income growth rate of 33 in 2018.

58%, net profit attributable to mothers grows 74 per year.

02%, the Air Force announced that the 2018 performance range was 90-105 trillion, and the final performance fell in the middle of the range.

The substantial improvement in the company’s performance was mainly due to: 1) The company’s carry-over speeded up and its profitability continued to increase, with a gross profit margin of up to 36.

69%, an increase of 1.
.

1 unit, setting a new historical high.

2) Gains and losses on fair value changes of investment properties amounted to 27.

US $ 8.5 billion, mainly due to the company’s breakthrough in new projects transferred to investment real estate in the current period, which resulted in fair value gains and losses.

3) Investment income has increased significantly. Investment income in 201822.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 320 in ten years.

59%.

Sales are eye-catching, investment is positive, and soil reserves are plentiful.

The company achieved a contract budget of 2210 in 2018.

9.8 billion, an annual increase of 74.

82%, 122 of the 180 billion sales target at the beginning of the year.

83%; sales area reached 1812.

0.6 million square meters, an increase of 95 in ten years.

21%, the growth rate ranked first among the top ten housing companies.

According to CRIC data, the company’s real estate sales area and sales amount ranked 7th and 8th among national real estate companies respectively, up 4 and 5 places compared with 2017.

The company adheres to the strategic policy of “deep regional cultivation, high turnover, and large operations”. Suzhou regional sales exceeded 20 billion, and southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other regions successively exceeded 10 billion sales.

In terms of investment, the company further added a total of 164 new land reserves with a total construction area of 4473.

240,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 41%, the average floor price is only 2330 yuan / square meter, accounting for 19% of the average sales price of 12,201 yuan / square meter in the same period, future project gross profit level is guaranteed.

The company’s existing soil reserves are very plentiful, with an area under construction of 7,158.

910,000 square meters, 3125 undeveloped building surface.

820,000 square meters. Based on the average sales price in 2018, the company’s value under construction and undeveloped exceeded 1.250 billion yuan.

Leverage levels continued to decline, and financing costs increased slightly.

The company effectively controls its leverage level, with an asset-liability ratio of 84 in 2018.

57%, excluding the pre-receipt asset-liability ratio of only 49%, a continuous decline of 9 alternatives; net debt ratio of 38%, a continuous decline of 25 alternatives.

In 2018, the company actively expanded financing channels and diversified financing.
In the context of a tighter financing environment, the company’s financing costs have increased, with an average financing cost of 6.
47%, an increase of 115 BP compared to the end of 2017.

The high-quality commercial leasing rate is high, and the nationwide expansion is balanced.

The company newly opened 19 new town Wuyue squares this year, the second largest in the industry in terms of opening scale, and gradually opened 42 new town Wuyue squares, with an opening area of 390.

400,000 countries, an annual increase of 72.

25%; long-term rent and management fee income21.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 107 in ten years.

44%, with an average occupancy rate of 98.

83%, continue to improve by 2017.

92 units.

The company’s goal is to build a high-quality shopping center that is “sentimental, non-replicated, and large-scale”. At present, it has achieved “the center of Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta as its core, and national expansion to the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Rim, and the Midwest.Balanced national layout strategy.

Investment suggestion: New City Holdings adheres to the “dwelling + business” two-wheel drive model. The company takes the Yangtze River Delta as its core and completes the layout of key national urban agglomerations.

The company’s scale of sales has continued to expand, with abundant land reserves. It is expected that the sales growth rate in the next 2-3 years will remain at a high level in the industry.

We expect the company’s EPS to reach 6 in 2019-2021.

00, 7.

74, 9.

32 yuan, the corresponding PE is 5 respectively.

73, 4.

44、3.

69 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: industry sales fluctuations; policy adjustments leading to operational risks (shed reform, restructuring, interest rate policies, etc.); changes in the financing environment (mortgages, development loans, interest rate adjustments, etc.).