Archives 2020

Yili (600887): Large single product revenue growth rate and market share continue to increase

Yili (600887): Large single product revenue growth rate and market share continue to increase

Key points of investment: The growth rate of large single products is stable, and the market share continues to increase due to (1) the continued decline of third- and fourth-tier channels and the development of new channels such as convenience stores;Strawberry oat flavor, the launch of new mango passion fruit, orange pineapple, and the promotion of high-end products of Jindian Juanshan; (3) the market launch of the parent brand premium sour milk shake, and the coverage of plant selection channels, the room temperature of Yili in the first half of this yearThe market share of the products has continued to increase. It is expected that the revenue growth of Jindian will be> 17%, and the growth rate of Amex will be> 20%.

Raw milk cost pressure has slightly increased, and product upgrade mitigation partially affected the raw milk purchase cost of 19H1 company + 6%, slightly exceeding the initial expected increase of 3% to 5%. It is expected that continuous improvement of product structure can alleviate some of the impact.

Due to the 上海夜网论坛 increase in the cost of raw milk, the company’s purchase of gifts in Q1 has decreased, and the gross profit margin has also increased by +0 every year.

7ppt, entering Q2, benefiting from the impact of increased downward adjustments, the company’s cost back-feeding channels and the effect of discounts on competing products. Q2 overall purchase gift strength increased slightly from the previous month, but it is still controllable.

Judging from the announced purchase prices of raw milk in the main producing areas, the price of raw milk this year shows a trend of not off-season. It is expected that the stocking of downstream products will be held during the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day. The price of raw milk is expected to maintain a growth rate of> 5% this year.

This year’s increase in raw milk prices is mainly due to 武汉夜网论坛 (1) the continued slump in raw milk prices, which has led to cattle rushes affecting high-yield cows; (2) the grave environmental protection policies have led to the closure and withdrawal of some ranches, and few more ranches;(3) The increase in the proportion of downstream high-end products has increased the demand for raw milk.

At present, some large ranches have plans to expand production, and they will initially increase their contribution in the second half of next year.

Under the high base last year, costs could be controlled under the influence of the World Cup. Last year, the company’s Q2 sales expense ratio reached 28.

35%, while the normal level is about 25%. This year, it is expected that Q2 will be placed online and offline at the expense rate. There will be about 3% of the cost space each time. The traditional transmission efficiency such as CCTV will be reduced. The company is also actively looking for products.The marketing of intermediate resources, diversified and differentiated business product marketing, and improving the efficiency of the use of expenses.

Earnings forecasts and estimates We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 894.

300 million / 992.

900 million / 1,073.

500 million, each year +13.

24% / 11.

02% / 8.

12%, net profit to mother is 71.

300 million / 81.

200 million / 92.

1 trillion each year +10.

5% / 14.

0% / 13.

4%, corresponding to EPS 1.

17 yuan / 1.

33 yuan / 1.

51 yuan, the company is currently expected to correspond to 19/20 PE of 28X / 24X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: Raw milk price rises more than expected / Intensified competition among dairy companies

Nengke (603859) Comments: Public Offering to Help Smart Manufacturing Pilot

Nengke (603859) Comments: Public Offering to Help Smart Manufacturing Pilot
I. Event: On November 25, the company publicly issued additional A shares to open subscriptions.The number of additional issues is 1,289.20,000 shares, 3 trillion of funds to be raised, of which 1.The $ 34 million budget “Product Life Cycle Collaboration Platform Based on Digital Alternatives” project, 76 million yuan is planned to be invested in the “High-end Manufacturing Assembly System Solution” project (“Engine Digital Assembly System Solution” and “Cylinder Workpiece Intelligence”Docking and assembling “system solutions”), and the remaining supplementary working capital.The results of the issuance and placing were announced on November 28. The successful issue plus resumption of trading on November 29.  Second, comments: Strengthen the first-mover advantage, expand business boundaries, and respond to the broad market. Strengthen the first-mover advantage: The company’s “digital replacement” technology is in its infancy internally, and Nenko has completed the Lenovo-made digital replacement.The project has the technical advantages of being recognized by major customers, and its first-mover advantage is obvious.Smart manufacturing as “Industry 4.The core of “0” is the driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. It is estimated that the market size of the intelligent manufacturing industry will reach 1 in 2019.US $ 9 trillion, of which the industrial software field of Nenko is the core of intelligent manufacturing, and the market size will reach US $ 168 billion.  According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the compound growth rate of the domestic industrial software industry market will exceed 10% in the next few years.  Nenko has increased its expansion and strengthened its first-mover advantage.  Expanding business boundaries: Nenko started from smart electrical, followed customer needs, and developed into smart manufacturing business, providing enterprises with end-to-end integration centered on product life cycle (PLM) and production process management (MES) as coreIntegration and business integration centered on enterprise resource planning (ERP).Revenue from the smart manufacturing business has grown 392% over the past three years.In the first half of this year, the smart manufacturing business accounted for more than three-quarters of its revenue.The success of the public increase will further expand the boundaries of the business and respond to the needs of different customers.The “engine digital assembly system solution” purchased by the company is very forward-looking. Due to the arrival of “National Six” standard, engine manufacturers will reinvest in production lines. Within 200 years, more than 200 assembly lines across the country have potential demand for the company’s products.  Third, investment recommendations We expect the EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.76/1合肥夜网.15/1.61 yuan, the corresponding PE is 31.3/20.5/14.7 times, PE (TTM) of the intelligent manufacturing sector is 25 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.  Fourth, risk warning: the receivables account period is further lengthened, and the new orders fall below expectations.

Tuobang (002139) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Gross Margin Level Improves, Demand in Downstream Industries picks up

Tuobang (002139) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Gross Margin Level Improves, Demand in Downstream Industries picks up

I. Overview of the event The company released the first quarter report of 2019: realized revenue 8.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 17 years.

19%; net profit attributable to mother is 52.02 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.


At the same time, the company released its forecast of operating results for the first six months: net profit of 16,443.


640,000 yuan, an annual increase of 50% -100%.

  Second, analyze and judge the steady growth of revenue, the gross profit level rebounded. In the first quarter of 2019, revenue achieved a steady growth. Affected by the decline in the prices of upstream raw materials, the gross profit level improved significantly and rose to 22.

06%, so profits can achieve rapid 杭州夜网 growth.

The report estimates that the company’s R & D expenses increased by 14.58 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 45.

1%, mainly due to the expansion of new customer product development.

Leading company in intelligent controllers and new opportunities brought by the recovery of the downstream home appliance industry. The company is a global leader in the intelligent controller industry. Intelligent controllers, DC brushless motors and drivers are widely used in home, industrial, medical and other fields.

The downstream of the company is mainly the home appliance industry, which belongs to the post-real estate industry. Due to the rebound in residential completion area since the beginning of the year, the home appliance industry is expected to usher in rapid growth this year.

The 北京养生会所 trend of intelligent home appliances is significant, and the added value of products continues to increase. Through technological progress and continuous improvement in people’s requirements for quality of life, home appliances and various types of generic home appliances are undergoing a process of digital, intensive, and intelligent development, and intelligent control.The proportion of the development of appliances in the household appliance industry is getting higher and higher.

At the same time, the application of intelligent controllers in health and care products, industrial control and other fields has also been continuously developed. The continuous expansion of application fields will bring new opportunities to the intelligent controller industry.

The convertible bonds were issued smoothly and the capacity increase increased in the first quarter of 2019. The company issued convertible bonds with a cumulative total of 5.

The US $ 7.3 billion will be used for the construction of the operation center in East China. After the completion, 45 million sets of intelligent controllers will be added, which will gradually increase the company’s existing intelligent controller capacity, effectively alleviate the shortage of production capacity, and help the company to further develop the East China market.

In addition, the company’s Indian Industrial Park has completed infrastructure construction and is expected to be operational in the second half of 2019.

The construction of the second phase of the Huizhou Industrial Park is completed, and the capacity transfer is progressing steadily as planned. It is expected that the entire Huizhou Industrial Park will achieve a 6 billion production capacity scale after reaching production.

  Third, the profit forecast and investment recommendations predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

33, 0.

45 and 0.

56 yuan, corresponding to 19 times, 14 times and 11 times the PE.

In the past three years, the company’s minimum PE value and expectations are 16 and 41 times, respectively.

Maintain the “Recommended” level.

  Fourth, risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; capacity expansion is less than expected.

Gemdale Group (600383) January 2020 Sales Data Review: Steady sales growth and caution

Gemdale Group (600383) January 2020 Sales Data Review: Steady sales growth and caution
Gemdale Group announced January sales data, and the company achieved a contract amount of 122 in January.4 ‰, an increase of 15 in ten years.2%; 61 signing area achieved.40,000 square meters, an increase of 32 in ten years.7%.In January, the company added 38 new construction surfaces.90,000 square meters, an increase of 137 in ten years.7%; total land price 31.10,000 yuan, an increase of 296 in ten years.6%.  Opinion: The sales in January continued to increase steadily, + 15% per year. It is expected that the long-term sales flexibility will reach 122 in January.400 million, down 65.5%, an increase of 15 per year.2%; 61 signing area achieved.40,000 square meters, down 66.5%, an annual increase of 32.7%; the average selling price of 19,935 yuan / flat, an increase of 2 quarter.8%, a decline of 13 per year.2%.We believe that due to the recent spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, there may be some pressure on the real estate market transactions in the first quarter, even affecting the gradual sales; but the demand for home purchases is only postponed, not disappeared.Sales account for a relatively small proportion, and it is expected that the overall sales may affect the controllability.In 南京夜生活网 addition, under the background of stable sales in the first-tier and second-tier markets; and the company is m