Ten charts for the World Bank’s 2019 economic forecast report
Source: RMB trading and research. The World Bank has lowered its expectations for the global economy, as trade and investment growth and rising exchange rates have broken through economic growth, especially in emerging markets; the threat of “disorderly” market fluctuations and the escalation of trade disputesIt has also exacerbated economic growth; the vulnerability of emerging markets and growing debt has increased.
World Bank focus countries remain “flexible and pragmatic” during economic shocks.
1The overall forecast of world economic growth predicts that the global economic growth in 2019 will 重庆耍耍网 be 2.
9%, compared with last year the World Bank forecasted a growth rate of 3 in 2019.
2. The GDP growth of major global economies in 2019, of which 2018 is actual data and 2019-2021 is forecast data.
US economic growth in 2019 2.
The 5% forecast is unchanged; the euro zone will grow by one this year.
6%, down from an earlier forecast of 0.
1 single; China’s economic growth forecast is reduced by 0.
1 average, up to 6.
3. Growth in global GDP and demand components (consumer investment exports) Exports are still changing, but the proportion is declining.
4. Growth in emerging economies (emerging economies; commodity exporters; commodity exporters other than China) 5. World trade growth forecasts 6. Tariff protectionism If all new tariffs currently under consideration are implemented,Then more than 5% of global merchandise trade will be affected, and the average tariff rate of the United States will rise to the highest level since the late 1960s.
The restraint of trade tensions involving major economies may be magnified by the decline in investor confidence.
The price of protectionism can be multiplied through global value interconnectedness, especially in emerging market countries.
7. Low-income countries have high debts. Low-income countries have increased debt vulnerability.
Although borrowing has helped many countries to address important development needs, the average debt-to-GDP ratio of low-income countries has been rising, and the debt structure has turned to a more expensive source of market-based financing.
These economies are appropriately focused on mobilizing domestic resources, strengthening debt and investment management methods, and establishing subdivided macro-fiscal frameworks.
Note: The chart shows the proportion of low-income countries eligible for IMF concessional loans.
These countries face high risk debt gaps; or are caught in debt gaps.
A country is considered to be in debt distress if it encounters difficulties in repaying its debt, such as arrears of debt, ongoing or imminent debt restructuring, or if there are indications that debt distress may occur in the future.
The sample includes 30 low-income countries, excluding Eritrea, Somalia and Syria due to data constraints.
Non-distance industries entering the emerging market with a decrease of 8% Non-distance industries account for about 70% of employment in emerging markets and developing economies and about 30% of GDP.
This is associated with a loss of opportunity as it relates to the highest incomes from obesity and hypertension, as well as higher poverty and inequality.
Reducing the reduction and regulatory burden, improving financing channels, providing better education and public services, and strengthening the public revenue framework can help create a level playing field between large-scale and non-scale industries.
9. Maintaining a low and stable inflation rate has become a challenge. Especially in emerging markets and developing economies, there is no guarantee that the sustained and stable growth rate of the past will be maintained.
The gradual pressure of restraint over the past 10 years is gradually fading.
The long-term factors that have helped reduce inflation over the past 50 years-global trade and financial integration, and widespread practice of a sound monetary policy framework-may lose momentum or reverse.
Maintaining global low inflation can be as challenging as achieving low inflation.
10. Global real GDP forecast in January 2019. World Bank countries are generally “flexible and pragmatic.” World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday: “We are facing a more difficult period for the global economy and recent financial market turmoil.This signal is definitely sent to us.
Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank’s Development Prospect Group, told reporters that central banks need to be flexible and “working” during the financial turmoil.
He said that although the recent 杭州夜网论坛 weak data is disturbing, it remains to be seen if this is a substitute for increased economic growth.
“Financial markets tell us that this is a big problem.”