Archives May 2020

Ten charts for the World Bank’s 2019 economic forecast report

Ten charts for the World Bank’s 2019 economic forecast report

Source: RMB trading and research. The World Bank has lowered its expectations for the global economy, as trade and investment growth and rising exchange rates have broken through economic growth, especially in emerging markets; the threat of “disorderly” market fluctuations and the escalation of trade disputesIt has also exacerbated economic growth; the vulnerability of emerging markets and growing debt has increased.

  World Bank focus countries remain “flexible and pragmatic” during economic shocks.

  1The overall forecast of world economic growth predicts that the global economic growth in 2019 will 重庆耍耍网 be 2.

9%, compared with last year the World Bank forecasted a growth rate of 3 in 2019.


  2. The GDP growth of major global economies in 2019, of which 2018 is actual data and 2019-2021 is forecast data.

US economic growth in 2019 2.

The 5% forecast is unchanged; the euro zone will grow by one this year.

6%, down from an earlier forecast of 0.

1 single; China’s economic growth forecast is reduced by 0.

1 average, up to 6.


  3. Growth in global GDP and demand components (consumer investment exports) Exports are still changing, but the proportion is declining.

  4. Growth in emerging economies (emerging economies; commodity exporters; commodity exporters other than China) 5. World trade growth forecasts 6. Tariff protectionism If all new tariffs currently under consideration are implemented,Then more than 5% of global merchandise trade will be affected, and the average tariff rate of the United States will rise to the highest level since the late 1960s.

The restraint of trade tensions involving major economies may be magnified by the decline in investor confidence.

The price of protectionism can be multiplied through global value interconnectedness, especially in emerging market countries.

  7. Low-income countries have high debts. Low-income countries have increased debt vulnerability.

Although borrowing has helped many countries to address important development needs, the average debt-to-GDP ratio of low-income countries has been rising, and the debt structure has turned to a more expensive source of market-based financing.

These economies are appropriately focused on mobilizing domestic resources, strengthening debt and investment management methods, and establishing subdivided macro-fiscal frameworks.

  Note: The chart shows the proportion of low-income countries eligible for IMF concessional loans.

These countries face high risk debt gaps; or are caught in debt gaps.

  A country is considered to be in debt distress if it encounters difficulties in repaying its debt, such as arrears of debt, ongoing or imminent debt restructuring, or if there are indications that debt distress may occur in the future.

The sample includes 30 low-income countries, excluding Eritrea, Somalia and Syria due to data constraints.

  Non-distance industries entering the emerging market with a decrease of 8% Non-distance industries account for about 70% of employment in emerging markets and developing economies and about 30% of GDP.

This is associated with a loss of opportunity as it relates to the highest incomes from obesity and hypertension, as well as higher poverty and inequality.

Reducing the reduction and regulatory burden, improving financing channels, providing better education and public services, and strengthening the public revenue framework can help create a level playing field between large-scale and non-scale industries.

  9. Maintaining a low and stable inflation rate has become a challenge. Especially in emerging markets and developing economies, there is no guarantee that the sustained and stable growth rate of the past will be maintained.

The gradual pressure of restraint over the past 10 years is gradually fading.

The long-term factors that have helped reduce inflation over the past 50 years-global trade and financial integration, and widespread practice of a sound monetary policy framework-may lose momentum or reverse.

Maintaining global low inflation can be as challenging as achieving low inflation.

  10. Global real GDP forecast in January 2019. World Bank countries are generally “flexible and pragmatic.” World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday: “We are facing a more difficult period for the global economy and recent financial market turmoil.This signal is definitely sent to us.

  Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank’s Development Prospect Group, told reporters that central banks need to be flexible and “working” during the financial turmoil.

He said that although the recent 杭州夜网论坛 weak data is disturbing, it remains to be seen if this is a substitute for increased economic growth.

“Financial markets tell us that this is a big problem.”

Sailun Tire (601058): Overseas layout advantage highlights giant tire business and opens up growth space

Sailun Tire (601058): Overseas layout advantage highlights giant tire business and opens up growth space
Investment points The company is one of the major domestic tire companies: Since its establishment in 2002, the company has focused on tire R & D, production and sales, and has expanded rapidly since its listing in 2012. It has successively acquired Shenyang Heping, Jinyu Industry, and laid out a base in Vietnam.As the production capacity under construction gradually reaches production, the increase in production and sales is expected to further consolidate and enhance the company’s industry position. Replacement tire market guarantees tire demand: Global and domestic replacement tires account for 81% and 68% of the total tire market, so the demand in the tire market is still dominated by replacement tires.Considering that the previous thousand-person car ownership has not yet reached the global average, and the ratio of car ownership to sales is only half of the global average, the 成都桑拿网 domestic automobile market in the future is still worth looking forward to. The tire industry is cutting-edge and stable, and Chinese companies are changing from big to strong: Looking at the global market, Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear have been among the top three in the tire industry for a long time. The three have a total market share.6%.At present, the domestic tire industry has a structural surplus. Through the advancement of supply-side reforms, small and medium-sized production capacity is gradually cleared. The domestic market is in the process of concentrating on the right tire companies. Giant tire products usher in the harvest period, opening up the company’s growth space: Giant tires are high-end engineering machinery tires, and their technology and market have been monopolized by international giants for a long 都市夜网 time. Benefiting from the increase in the downstream mining industry boom, demand for giant tires has reached a new waveQuotes.After nearly ten years of research and development, the company successfully rolled off the world’s largest 63-inch giant radial tire in 2016. It has now become one of the three largest supplier of Caterpillar tires to the world’s largest construction machinery and mining equipment manufacturer and has entered China.A breakthrough in the giant tire business in 70% of the large-scale mining market is expected to open up the company’s growth space. The overseas layout and new production capacity will accelerate the release of performance: The company’s overseas layout has received positive feedback. In the process of Sino-US trade friction, the role of Vietnam’s production base has become increasingly prominent.At the same time, the company plans to produce 2.4 million all-steel tires, 7 million semi-steel tires and 4 in the past two years.6 Initially off-highway tires, increased production capacity will further accelerate the release of the company’s performance.In addition, export tax rebates and gradual tax reductions will also significantly increase company performance. Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 152.4.4 billion, 173.06 ppm and 199.08,000 yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother is 10.2.7 billion, 15.5.8 billion and 21.97 ppm, EPS is 0.38 yuan, 0.58 yuan and 0.81 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 9 respectively.7X, 6.4X and 4.5 times.Considering the increase in industry concentration and the increase in production capacity, the company’s profit is expected to continue to grow in the future, and the giant tire business has opened up the company’s growth space.Covered for the first time, giving the company an “overweight” rating. Risk warning: the production progress is less than expected; the price of raw materials fluctuates significantly; the equity premium rate of major shareholders is high