Gemdale Group (600383) January 2020 Sales Data Review: Steady sales growth and caution

Gemdale Group (600383) January 2020 Sales Data Review: Steady sales growth and caution
Gemdale Group announced January sales data, and the company achieved a contract amount of 122 in January.4 ‰, an increase of 15 in ten years.2%; 61 signing area achieved.40,000 square meters, an increase of 32 in ten years.7%.In January, the company added 38 new construction surfaces.90,000 square meters, an increase of 137 in ten years.7%; total land price 31.10,000 yuan, an increase of 296 in ten years.6%.  Opinion: The sales in January continued to increase steadily, + 15% per year. It is expected that the long-term sales flexibility will reach 122 in January.400 million, down 65.5%, an increase of 15 per year.2%; 61 signing area achieved.40,000 square meters, down 66.5%, an annual increase of 32.7%; the average selling price of 19,935 yuan / flat, an increase of 2 quarter.8%, a decline of 13 per year.2%.We believe that due to the recent spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, there may be some pressure on the real estate market transactions in the first quarter, even affecting the gradual sales; but the demand for home purchases is only postponed, not disappeared.Sales account for a relatively small proportion, and it is expected that the overall sales may affect the controllability.In 南京夜生活网 addition, under the background of stable sales in the first-tier and second-tier markets; and the company is more aggressive in acquiring land in 2019, it is expected that the available sales will continue to be abundant in 2020, and at the same time, it will promote better sales flexibility. Land acquisition in January was prudent, and land acquisition amounted to 25%, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation. In January, the company acquired Harbin and Qingdao in the land market for a total of 3 projects.  In January, the company added 38 new construction surfaces.90,000 square meters, down 74 from the previous month.7%, an annual increase of 137.7%; corresponding to the total land price of 31.10,000 yuan, down 56.6%, an annual increase of 296.6%; the amount of land acquisition accounts for 25% of the sales amount.4%, 56 over the previous year.0% down 30.6pct; land acquisition area accounts for 63% of sales area.3%, compared with 120 in the previous year.5% down 57.2pct; average floor price of 7,995 yuan / square meter, an increase of 71 from the previous month.9%, an annual increase of 66.8%, a decrease of 11,070 yuan / m2 from the previous year.9%; the average price of land is 40% of the average monthly sales price.1%, compared with 46 in the previous year.5% down 6.4pct.We are selling at an average price of 2.0 million yuan / flat growth company in January added value of 7.8 billion yuan, over the same period sales of 12.2 billion yuan. Investment suggestion: Sales should increase steadily, and land acquisition should be prudent. Maintaining a “strong push” rating. Gemdale Group is one of the old-fashioned leading real estate companies. Its 30-year stable history and high proportion of insurance capital demonstrate the past balanced development and high dividend dividend tradition.Second-tier + start-up actively promotes ample saleability + 19 years to keep the land actively, the company’s sales flexibility in 2020 is better.At the end of 19H1, 80% of the company’s total soil reserves were on the first and second tiers, and the advance receipts covered a high of one.8 times to ensure the stable release of future performance.We maintain the company’s profit forecast for 2019-21 to 2.24, 2.69 yuan and 3.17 yuan, corresponding to only 5 in 19/20 PE.8/4.8 times, 18A / 19E dividend yield is as high as 4.6% / 5.8%, maintaining target price of 18.83 yuan to maintain the “strong push” level. Risk reminder: Real estate industry policy tightens more than expected and industry funds tighten more than expected